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Life Insurance Underwriting Risks

Life insurance risks encompass underwriting risk and discount rate risk in technical provisions. Underwriting risk includes biometric, policyholder behavior and expense risks.

Life Insurance Underwriting Risks

 

Biometric Risks

Biometric risks in life insurance refer mainly to the risk that the company has to pay more mortality, disability or morbidity benefits than expected or the company has to keep paying pension payments to the pension policyholders for a longer time (longevity risk) than expected when pricing the policies. The specific case in which a single event or series of single events of major magnitude lead to a significant deviation in actual benefits and payments from the total expected payments is called catastrophe risk.

Long duration of policies and restriction of Mandatum Life’s right to increase tariffs increases biometric risks. If the premiums turn out to be inaccurate and pricing cannot be changed afterwards, technical provisions have to be supplemented with an amount corresponding to the expected losses.

The table Claim Ratios After Reinsurance, Mandatum Life, 2013 and 2012 shows the insurance risk result in Mandatum Life’s Finnish life insurance policies. The ratio of the actual claims costs to the assumed was 79 per cent in 2013 (82 per cent in 2012). Sensitivity of the insurance risk result can also be assessed on the basis of the information in the table. For instance the increase of mortality by 100 per cent would increase the amount of benefit payments from EUR 16 million to EUR 32 million.

Claim Ratios After Reinsurance
Mandatum Life, 2013 and 2012
2013 2012
EURm Risk income Claim expense Claim ratio Risk income Claim expense Claim ratio
Life insurance 47.4 27.1 57% 42.4 25.2 59%
Mortality 29.8 16.1 54% 25.9 14.9 57%
Morbidity and disability 17.6 11.0 62% 16.5 10.3 62%
Pension 57.5 55.5 97% 57.7 57.3 99%
Individual pension 9.1 9.8 108% 9.5 10.1 106%
Group pension 48.4 45.7 94% 48.2 47.2 98%
Mortality (longevity) 43.9 43.3 99% 43.5 44.2 102%
Disability 4.5 2.4 52% 4.7 3.0 64%
Mandatum Life 104.8 82.6 79% 100.1 82.5 82%

Longevity risk is the most critical biometric risk in Mandatum Life. Most of the longevity risk arises from the with profit group pension portfolio. With profit group pension policies have mostly been closed for new members for years and due to this the average age of members is relatively high, i.e. around 69 years. In the unit-linked group pension and individual pension portfolio the longevity risk is less significant because most of these policies are fixed term annuities including death cover compensating the longevity risk.

The annual longevity risk result and longevity trend is analyzed regularly. The assumed life expectancy related to the technical provisions for group pensions was revised in 2002 and additional changes were made in 2007. The cumulative longevity risk result has been positive since these revisions. The longevity risk result of group pension for the year 2013 was EUR 0.6 million (EUR -0.7 million in 2012).

Mortality risk result in life insurance is positive. A possible pandemic is seen as the most significant risk that could adversely affect the mortality risk result.

The insurance risk result of other biometric risks has been profitable in total, although the different risk results differ considerably. In a longer term, disability and morbidity risks are mitigated by the company’s right to raise insurance premiums for existing policies in case the claims experience deteriorates.

New gender neutral pricing is fully in-force for all new retail policies with biometric risks. This creates more uncertainty for the future, although changes are not expected to have a significant impact on risk result.

The insurance portfolio of Mandatum Life is relatively well diversified and does not include major concentration risks. To further mitigate the effects of possible risk concentrations, Mandatum Life has the catastrophe reinsurance in place.

Policyholder Behavior and Expense Risks

Uncertainty related to the behavior of the policyholders is a major risk as well. The policyholders have the right to cease paying premiums (lapse risk) and the possibility to interrupt their policies (surrender risk). Ability to keep lapse and surrender rates in a low level is a crucial success factor especially for the expense result of unit-linked business.

From ALM point of view surrender and lapse risks are less significant because in Mandatum Life, over 90 per cent of with profit policies are pension policies in which surrender is possible only in exceptional cases. For ALM risk, surrender risk is therefore only relevant in individual life and capital redemption policies of which the related technical provisions amounts to only 6 per cent (EUR 237 million) of the total with profit technical provisions. Furthermore, the supplements to technical provisions are not paid out at surrender which also reduces the surrender risk related to the with profit policies. Surrender and lapse risks are taken into account when the company is analyzing its ALM risk.

The company is also exposed to expense risk, which is a risk that the future operating expenses exceed the level that was anticipated when pricing the insurances. Policy terms and tariffs cannot usually be changed materially during the lifetime of the insurance, which increases the expense risk. The main challenge is to keep the expenses related to insurance administrative processes and complex IT infrastructure at an efficient level. In year 2013, expense result was EUR 14.2 million (EUR 5.8 million in 2012). Mandatum Life does not defer insurance acquisition costs.

Discount Rate Risk in Technical Provisions

Discount rate risk in technical provisions is the main risk affecting the adequacy of technical provisions. The guaranteed interest rate in policies is fixed for the whole policy period. Thus, if market interest rates and expected investment returns fall, technical provisions may have to be supplemented.

In most with profit policies, the guaranteed interest rate is 3.5 per cent. In individual policies sold in Finland before 1999, the guaranteed interest rate is 4.5 per cent, which is also the statutory maximum discount rate of these policies. With respect to these policies, the maximum discount rate used when discounting technical provisions has been decreased to 3.5 per cent. As a result, technical provisions have been supplemented with EUR 75 million in 2013 (EUR 71 million in 2012). In addition, EUR 44 million has been reserved to lower the interest rate of with profit liabilities to 2.25 per cent in 2014 and EUR 26 million for the year 2015 to lower the interest rate of with profit liabilities to 2.75 per cent, i.e. Mandatum Life has set up an extra reserve of EUR 146 million as part of technical provisions.

The provisions related to each product type and guaranteed interest rates are shown in the table Analysis of the Change in Provisions before Reinsurance, Mandatum Life, 2013. The table also shows the change in each category during 2013.

 
Analysis of the Change in Provisions before Reinsurance
Mandatum Life, 2013
EURm Liability 2012 Premiums Claims paid Expense charges Guaranteed interest Bonuses Other Liability 2013 Share %
Mandatum Life parent company
Unit-linked total 3,699 880 -323 -52 0 0 271 4,475 52
Individual pension insurance 894 81 -8 -13 0 0 60 1,014 12
Individual life 1,301 311 -144 -14 0 0 75 1,530 18
Capital redemption operations 1,140 430 -166 -18 0 0 103 1,489 17
Group pension 364 57 -5 -6 0 0 33 442 5
With-profit and others total 4,052 156 -394 -36 139 3 -11 3,910 46
Group pension 2,411 64 -188 -7 80 3 -28 2,335 27
Guaranteed rate 3.5% 2,321 53 -181 -6 77 2 -53 2,213 26
Guaranteed rate 2.5% or 0.0% 90 11 -6 -1 3 0 25 122 1
Individual pension insurance 1,216 21 -156 -6 51 0 16 1,141 13
Guaranteed rate 4.5% 1,015 14 -125 -5 44 0 2 945 11
Guaranteed rate 3.5% 157 4 -22 -1 5 0 9 153 2
Guaranteed rate 2.5% or 0.0% 44 2 -9 -0 1 0 6 43 1
Individual life insurance 253 32 -36 -10 8 0 -14 233 3
Guaranteed rate 4.5% 72 5 -8 -2 3 0 -2 68 1
Guaranteed rate 3.5% 121 11 -15 -4 4 0 -7 109 1
Guaranteed rate 2.5% or 0.0% 61 17 -13 -6 1 0 -4 56 1
Capital redemption operations 6 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 4 0
Guaranteed rate 3.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Guaranteed rate 2.5% or 0.0% 6 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 4 0
Future bonus reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reserve for decreased discount rate 118 0 0 0 0 0 28 146 2
Assumed reinsurance 2 4 -1 0 0 0 0 6 0
Other liabilities 47 34 -12 -12 1 0 -12 45 1
Mandatum Life parent company total 7,751 1,036 -716 -88 139 3 260 8,385 98
Subsidiary Mandatum Life Insurance Baltic SE 153 32 -25 -3 1 0 2 159 2
Unit-linked 134 29 -22 -2 0 0 3 142 2
Others 19 3 -3 -1 1 0 -1 18 0
Mandatum Life group total 7,904 1,068 -741 -91 139 3 262 8,544 100

Unit linked business has been Mandatum Life’s main focus area since year 2001. Since that the trend of unit linked technical provisions have been upward and annual average change in technical provisions has been + 26 per cent per annum. Due to the nature of unit linked business, volatility between years is relatively high.

In contrast, the trend of with profit technical provisions is downward, especially portfolios with highest 4.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent guarantees. Technical provisions with highest guarantees fell by EUR 197 million. In total, with profit technical provisions decreased by EUR 143 million including a strengthening of the discount rate reserves by EUR 28 million.

Unit-linked technical provisions exceeded with profit technical provisions during year 2013.

The development of the structure and amount of Mandatum Life’s technical provisions is shown in the figure Development of With Profit and Unit-linked Technical Provisions, Mandatum Life, 2004–2013.

Development of With Profit and Unit-linked Technical Provisions
Mandatum Life, 2004-2013
EURm

The table Expected Maturity of Insurance and Investment Contracts before Reinsurance, Mandatum Life, 31 December 2013 shows the expected maturity and duration of insurance and investment contracts of Mandatum Life. The sensitivity of technical provisions to changes in discount rates can be assessed on the basis of the durations shown in the table.

 
Expected Maturity of Insurance and Investment Contracts before Reinsurance
Mandatum Life, 31 December 2013
EURm Duration 2014-
2015
2016-
2017
2018-
2022
2023-
2027
2028-
2032
2033-
2037
2038
-
Mandatum Life parent company
Unit-linked total 8.6 759 688 1,254 884 785 357 429
Individual pension insurance 11.4 66 112 257 234 196 143 172
Individual life 7.6 327 279 432 286 235 111 106
Capital redemption operations *) 7.2 336 255 448 264 280 49 74
Group pension 11.3 29 42 117 100 74 54 77
With-profit and others total 8.6 870 699 1,280 867 589 395 604
Group pension 10.0 383 353 752 576 423 305 477
Guaranteed rate 3.5% 10.0 362 338 724 554 406 292 453
Guaranteed rate 2.5% or 0.0% 9.9 21 15 28 21 17 13 24
Individual pension insurance 6.4 302 278 430 230 122 55 57
Guaranteed rate 4.5% 6.4 251 230 368 198 101 44 48
Guaranteed rate 3.5% 6.4 39 38 50 26 18 9 7
Guaranteed rate 2.5% or 0.0% 5.8 12 10 12 6 3 2 2
Individual life insurance 9.9 49 52 73 50 38 32 67
Guaranteed rate 4.5% 10.8 16 14 22 16 12 12 28
Guaranteed rate 3.5% 10.2 20 22 35 24 19 15 30
Guaranteed rate 2.5% or 0.0% 7.8 12 16 17 9 7 5 9
Capital redemption operations *) 6.9 1 0 1 1 1 0 0
Guaranteed rate 3.5% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Guaranteed rate 2.5% or 0.0% 6.9 1 0 1 1 1 0 0
Future bonus reserves 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reserve for decreased discount rate 3.3 89 13 21 11 5 3 3
Assumed reinsurance 0.5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other liabilities 1.0 41 3 2 0 0 0 0
Mandatum Life parent company total 8.6 1,629 1,386 2,534 1,751 1,374 752 1,033
Subsidiary Mandatum Life Insurance
Baltic SE
15 17 38 16 27 9 37
Unit-linked 12 13 32 14 26 9 37
Others 4 3 7 2 1 0 0
Mandatum Life group total 1,644 1,403 2,572 1,767 1,401 761 1,070
*) Investment contracts

Life Insurance Risk Management

Biometric risks are managed by careful risk selection, by pricing to reflect the risks and costs, by setting upper limits for the protection granted and by use of reinsurance.

Reinsurance is used to limit the amount of individual mortality and disability risks. The Board of Directors annually determines the maximum amount of risk to be retained on the company’s own account, which for Mandatum Life is EUR 1.5 million per insured. To mitigate the effects of possible catastrophes, Mandatum Life participates in the catastrophe reinsurance bought jointly by Finnish life insurance companies.

Risk selection is part of the day-to-day business routines in Mandatum Life. Mandatum Life’s Underwriting Policy sets principles for risk selection and limits for sums insured. Compliance with the principles and limits set in the Underwriting Policy are monitored continuously.

The risk result is followed actively and analyzed thoroughly annually. Mandatum Life measures the efficiency of risk selection and adequacy of tariffs by collecting information about the actual claims expenditure for each product line and each type of risk and comparing it to the claims expenditure assumed in insurance premiums of every risk cover.

Technical provisions are analyzed and the possible supplement needs are assessed regularly. Assumptions related to technical provisions are reviewed annually. Adequacy of technical provisions is tested quarterly. Tariffs for new policies are set and the Underwriting Policy and assumptions used in calculating technical provisions are updated based on adequacy tests and risk result analysis. Tariffs and prices, as well as the reinsurance principles and reserving principles are reviewed and approved annually by the Board of Directors of Mandatum Life.

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